Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
