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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd